I appreciate you are taking an American viewpoint, but the impacts of AMOC reduction or stalling are far worse here in Europe. At the moment, high sea temperatures keep Europe around 8* C warmer than equivalent latitudes in North America, so where the St Lawrence seaway freezes in winter, London's Thames stays at around 5*C. That makes Europe habitable far further north than for American cities.
The consequences of AMOC collapse would be catastrophic, making many European cities uninhabitable, making north European winters almost untenable, and ending food production over millions of hectares resulting in a global food shortage. It would drive mass migration southwards, across many political borders, and undoubtedly cause political crises and even wars.
I will mention two further points:
The more recent global predictions regarding increasing temperatures in Europe would, it seems potentially be balanced by the fall in temperatures caused by a collapse of AMOC, at least for some coastal European locations. In other words, the situation is dynamic and very complex.
On the political front, I have wondered if Putin's attack on Ukraine was to achieve food production, energy production, and access to ports to the south, in expectation of an AMOC collapse driving northern and central Russia into a new ice age. If true, it would be an early example of the scale of threats that might engulf Europe as an AMOC collapse becomes more likely.
I appreciate you are taking an American viewpoint, but the impacts of AMOC reduction or stalling are far worse here in Europe. At the moment, high sea temperatures keep Europe around 8* C warmer than equivalent latitudes in North America, so where the St Lawrence seaway freezes in winter, London's Thames stays at around 5*C. That makes Europe habitable far further north than for American cities.
The consequences of AMOC collapse would be catastrophic, making many European cities uninhabitable, making north European winters almost untenable, and ending food production over millions of hectares resulting in a global food shortage. It would drive mass migration southwards, across many political borders, and undoubtedly cause political crises and even wars.
I will mention two further points:
The more recent global predictions regarding increasing temperatures in Europe would, it seems potentially be balanced by the fall in temperatures caused by a collapse of AMOC, at least for some coastal European locations. In other words, the situation is dynamic and very complex.
On the political front, I have wondered if Putin's attack on Ukraine was to achieve food production, energy production, and access to ports to the south, in expectation of an AMOC collapse driving northern and central Russia into a new ice age. If true, it would be an early example of the scale of threats that might engulf Europe as an AMOC collapse becomes more likely.
Thank you for your work 🌱